The Signal and the Noise

“… Still, as the 9/11 Commission deduced, the most important source of failure in advance of the attacks was our lack of our imagination. When we are making predictions, we need a balance between curiosity and skepticism. They can be compatible. The more eagerly we commit to scrutinizing and testing our theories the more readily we accept that our knowledge of the world is uncertain, the more willingly we acknowledge that perfect prediction is impossible, the less we live in fear of our failures, and the more liberty we will have to let our minds flow freely. By knowing more about what we don’t know, we may get a few more predictions right.”

From The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver.

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